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Egoism Individualism Sovereignty Splendor (These ideas are explicated in this sloppy manifesto) SplendorQuotes: Splendor is the interior experience of being so enthralled by the act of creating the values that contribute to and ultimately comprise your idealized perfect self that, while you are experiencing it, you are your idealized perfect self. Living is what you're doing when you're too enthralled to notice. Dying is what you're doing when all you can do is notice. Man is the only animal capable of comprehending what his life requires, and he is the only animal capable of failing to do what his life requires. Self-love is the joy and reverence you earn and deserve by the relentless pursuit of your deepest desire. Self-esteem is the high regard in which you presume to hold yourself in appreciation for the accomplishment of absolutely nothing. Greg Swann's writings Wild Cochise Gang: Our family pages and Christmas cards Read my free e-book about love, splendor and philosophy, The Unfallen My Myers-Briggs type is ESTJ: Administrator--Much in touch with the external environment. Very responsible. Pillar of strength. 8.7% of population. Take a free Myers-Briggs personality test. War with Iraq: The Cain Doctrine The 'wrest' of the story Taking a better grip Why the Bush Doctrine will prevail--and fail A Just and Libertarian war... Persephone's second coming... presence of the recent past Nick and Norm drive the point home A Costco family Christmas Hang tough The season's greetings Curing the incuriosity of the East A canticle for Kathleen Sullivan Colloquy with a goat Back-handing the sinister American left To Condi, with sweetness Reds Sacrificing Diana Defusing the Unabomber Let 'em eat steak Shyly's delight Anastasia in the light and shadow Archives Join the email update list 
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Thursday, November 24, 2005
Digging for the news on interest rates Note this from the Arizona Republic: Mortgage rates around the country, which have been trending upward, dropped this week, offering a dose of good news for prospective home buyers.Newspapers are all about bad news reported on the shortest possible range of vision, so I suppose we should rejoice that the paper actually took note of some good short-term news. But the news of interest rates--and of real estate in general--is always about the long-term. The news of securities issues might matter day-to-day, but nobody buys a house one day and sells it the next. So: What's the real news on interest rates? Take a look at this graph:  All of these charts come from BankRate.com. What we're looking at is the average rates for a 30-year fixed rate amortizing mortgage from Arizona lenders over the last 30 days. We hover between 5.70% and 5.96%, and the recent trend is decidedly downward. Good news, huh? Maybe not:  That's the three-month trend for a 30-tear fixed. The real trend is fairly steadily upward, right? But wait. There's more:  The same loan product over the last year. Down. Then up. Then back down. Then up a little. Then down a little. Then way up. Could it be that the sky really is falling?  Phew! The three-year trend looks like a Drunkard's Walk, a random stochastic hovering right around 5.40%. Interestingly, the trend seems to be flattening. But: If you read anything into that, you're making an error. Mortgage rates aren't caused by trends, trends are a coincidental artifact of changes in rates. But here's the real news:  That's the five-year history of 30-year fixed rate mortgages in Arizona. Does that look like bad news to you? Does it look like bad news is lurking just around the corner, poised to strike? Things can change. Disasters can befall us. Governments can inflict grievous errors on the national or international economy. But for now, at least, there is an awful lot of mortgage money out there looking for borrowers. This is why rates have been so low for so long. In the short-run, interest rates may be up a little or down a little. Over the long-term, assuming our economy stays on an even keel, the news is not just good, it's great. |
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I am a a Realtor working in sunny Phoenix, Arizona, and the Designated Broker for Bloodhound Reatly. I am an Accredited Buyer's Representative, a Certified Buyer's Representative, a Certified Residential Specialist, an E-Pro Internet Certified Realtor and a Graduate of the Realtor Institute. I speak frequently on real estate issues and write a weekly column for West Valley sections of the Arizona Republic. If you need--or you know someone who needs--to buy or sell a home in the Metropolitan Phoenix area, I would be grateful for the opportunity to compete for the business. I think I represent the best of all worlds: Objectivist intelligence, Libertarian integrity and Catholic conscientiousness. For a liberty-loving take on real estate news, visit the Bloodhound Home Marketing Group weblog. And if what I'm doing suits the readership of your web site or weblog, please do link to it. Or go me one better by putting the customizable button above on your web page. Either way, for every person you refer who buys or sells a home with us, we will donate 10% of our net commission to the charity or advocacy group of your choice (within limits; we won't give money to people who kill people). Find out more from our referral page.
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If you don't know how to play poker, but want to learn, a place to begin is my Amazon list of poker books for beginners. Just remember: If you don't have a Positive Expected Value--you're gambling... | ||
